Hello and welcome to my blog. In my first few entries, I will share with you some of what motivated me to start Hoaloha Robotics and my personal vision for how this technology could be an important tool for our future.
On November 4, 2009, after a successful career of 28 years of contributions at Microsoft, I officially resigned. It had been an exciting ride where I had an opportunity to start and participate in a number of projects. When I started there, IBM had just entered the PC market, creating a catalyst that would accelerate the already building momentum of the emerging PC industry.
Over the past 6 years I have watched what seems to be history repeating itself with the emergence of personal robots, evolving like PCs did from the large, expensive, and not very personal industrial-strength machines. Like personal robots are today, many of the early PC entrants were still very much toys compared with their predecessors, initially with far less power and capability. However, they were much more accessible and interactive, and mostly embraced at first by technology-oriented early adopters and researchers. But they rapidly advanced and evolved into forms that have moved beyond toys to serious tools that we use every day.
A key part of that transition was not simply the improvements in hardware technology, but also in software that impacted how we interacted with them and the rapid growth in diversity, availability, and affordability of applications. “Killer apps” is what we called them then; applications that were so compelling that they justified the purchase of what was then still a new and relatively expensive piece of technology, averaging around $3000 for the ideal configuration. Prices eventually dropped with increasing competition and lower costs of manufacturing to where you can easily buy a reasonable machine today for between $500 and $1000, and premium multi-core class machines for under $2000. It took about 20 years of exponential improvements for that to happen.
Using the early PC industry as an analogy for the emerging personal robotics industry may not be a perfect metric. It’s still very early. There still isn’t a dominant initial innovative early player with a user programmable platform like Apple Computer (though Sony tried), or a mammoth corporate giant like IBM to help catalyze things. I do see some parallels in the work of iRobot and Toyota. It’s possible that personal robotics might follow a path more like mobile phones where a set of strong players compete and the balance of dominance shifts. Or perhaps personal robotics will take its own path.
Regardless, it seems clear that software, especially the user experience and valued content, remains the key to future success for personal robots just as it has been demonstrated in the digital technology industries of dvd players, portable media players, game players, and smartphones. Hardware is obviously an important contributing factor. There must be a sufficient configuration. The PC industry would likely have not survived with only 128K floppy based, 9” inch black and white screen Macs or 256K double-floppy PCs with CGA displays. Fortunately, better displays, faster processors, hard disk storage, and more memory quickly came to market. But it was the demands of the software that continued to push for hardware improvements. So while there is an obvious, important synergistic relationship between hardware and software, ultimately software is a critical element that defines value and drives adoption.
The importance of software, user interface, and applications to the success of personal robotics is not a very controversial point, but so far little has been done in the personal robotics market to deliver compelling scenarios beyond simple function, education, or entertainment. This is despite many years of research investment worldwide into robotics. This is not to disrespect iRobot’s great success with the Roomba vacuum cleaning robot, with several million sold. It clearly demonstrates that the right value at the right price can lead to success, though the Roomba still represents only the potential of what is coming.
To be fair, the success of the emerging PC industry didn’t happen overnight. I can recall showing off my new Apple II computer to friends and family and some of the amazing things it could do. Most were unconvinced at that time that it had much practical value. However, as the application base grew exponentially, PCs became increasingly indispensible.
As I observed and researched the robotics industry in 2004, I started in a familiar way for Microsoft, by defining a set of tools that would make it easier to develop applications. That direction was not based only my own experience and assessment, but also with the encouragement and invitation many of the leaders in the robotics industry who welcomed Microsoft’s participation. They recognized the importance of software and applications and the need for more options that could help unleash the creativity of a wider community to contribute. That resulted in the development and release of Microsoft Robotics Developer Studio in 2006 as well as many other efforts within the community to help support greater application development.
Subsequently Microsoft execs encouraged me to take the next step and propose the definition a compelling application scenario for personal robots. (“Compelling” seems to sound much better than “killer” when referencing robots.) After looking at many of the existing and potential markets for robots, including military, automotive, manufacturing, education, surveillance, exploration, consumer, and medical applications, the area that deeply impressed me most was assistive care.
It started with discovering the overwhelming data that I have posted on the Hoaloha website; an increasing number of people with functional limitations, the impact of the aging baby boomers, the increasing costs of care, and shrinking resources. At one end of the spectrum we have a growing incidence of chronic diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s and at the other the growing incidence of autism. Further, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg now. Clearly there is a compelling need and opportunity to apply technology (not just robots) to address these challenges. Some observers have even characterized the impact of the challenges associated with the aging of the world population as the “Silver Tsunami.”
The only question is whether the state of technology has evolved and matured enough to deliver robotics with the right user experience and applications. Consider that by the year 2050, over 20% of the population (and in some countries over 25%) will be over 65 and the implication that will have not only in terms of health and care needs, but in terms of the loss of workforce. Add to this that the 77+ million baby boomers, who make up the bulk of the aging expansion, are entering their senior years healthier than their parents, more familiar and already using technology to enhance their lives, and so more willing and able to contribute in their senior years, and you conclude that the challenge is not merely to bridge the care gap and empower people to better manage their own health and quality of life, but to enable them to continue to be active participants in society. While aging may take its toll on memory and mobility, research shows that the capacity to integrate and use knowledge and information can actually increase with age.
My observations of the state of the industry, combined with my experience from the PC industry convinces me that things are rapidly converging to make it possible. I am not the only person to think so. Much of the recent investments in robotics worldwide (especially outside the U.S.) place elder and assistive care as a top priority. Toyota has been investing in care-oriented “partner robots” for at least the past 5 years, and last fall iRobot CEO, Colin Angle, announced the formation of a new division to create products that would address the growing senior care market. In addition, I see the value for such technology reflected in the context of my own family and my friends’ families. I even see the potential benefit of such technology to me in my own future.
I felt so compelled by this challenge and opportunity that I decided to leave Microsoft to pursue this, though I know it will not be easy. While I can build on the foundation of existing PC technologies, it will require further innovation and evolution, as we have seen with the new PC form factors like smartphones and slates/tablets PC. It will also require a user interface paradigm shift as significant as the one that occurred with graphical user interfaces introduced by Windows and the Mac to create an interface that that is both autonomous and naturally interactive, without a keyboard and a mouse, leveraging some cutting edge technologies in the area of vision, touch, and speech.
But for me, this feels like familiar ground. It’s not a question of whether it will happen, but charting a path to get there.
So if you care to find me
Look to the western sky!
As someone told me lately:
“Everyone deserves the chance to fly!”
And if I’m flying solo
At least I’m flying free
To those who’d ground me
Take a message back from me.
Tell them how I am
Defying gravity
I’m flying high
Defying gravity